A case odds table tells you the chance of each item dropping from one opening; to read it, convert each percentage into "1 in X", check that all chances add up to 100%, and look at how much of the 100% sits on items worth less than the case price. Those three checks take a minute and tell you more than the case artwork ever will.
What a typical odds table contains
Most tables show some or all of these columns:
| Column | What it means | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Item | The specific item, often with a wear condition | Item name (Field-Tested) |
| Value | The site's listed value of the item | $14.20 |
| Chance | Probability per opening, as a percentage | 1.20% |
| Ticket range | Which random numbers map to the item | 98,801 – 100,000 |
| Rarity/tier | A colour or label | Covert, red |
Only the chance column is about probability. The rarity colour is decoration; treat it as a hint at most.
Step 1: convert percentages into "1 in X"
Percentages under 1% are hard to feel. Converting them helps:
1 in X = 100 ÷ chance (in %)
| Chance | 1 in X | Read as |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1 in 2 | Every other opening on average |
| 10% | 1 in 10 | |
| 2% | 1 in 50 | |
| 0.5% | 1 in 200 | |
| 0.1% | 1 in 1,000 | |
| 0.02% | 1 in 5,000 |
"1 in 1,000" is an average over very many openings, not a countdown. Your 1,000th opening has the same 0.1% chance as your first.
Step 2: check that the table adds up
Add up the chance column. It should come to 100%, give or take a rounding difference of 0.01–0.02%. If a table only lists the "interesting" items, or the total is well short of 100%, the missing share is going somewhere you can't see.
Step 3: work out how much of the table sits below the case price
This is the most useful single number on the page. Add up the chances of every item whose value is lower than the case price. That is your chance of getting back less than you paid on one opening.
A worked example (fictional)
The following $5.00 case is invented for this guide. It uses ticket ranges out of 100,000, as many sites do.
| Item | Value | Ticket range | Tickets | Chance | 1 in X |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item 1 | $180.00 | 1 – 80 | 80 | 0.08% | 1,250 |
| Item 2 | $45.00 | 81 – 700 | 620 | 0.62% | ≈161 |
| Item 3 | $12.00 | 701 – 6,700 | 6,000 | 6.00% | ≈16.7 |
| Item 4 | $5.50 | 6,701 – 21,700 | 15,000 | 15.00% | ≈6.7 |
| Item 5 | $2.10 | 21,701 – 56,700 | 35,000 | 35.00% | ≈2.9 |
| Item 6 | $0.90 | 56,701 – 100,000 | 43,300 | 43.30% | ≈2.3 |
| Total | 100,000 | 100.00% |
How the columns connect:
- Tickets = end − start + 1. For Item 2: 700 − 81 + 1 = 620.
- Chance = tickets ÷ 100,000. For Item 2: 620 ÷ 100,000 = 0.62%.
- 1 in X = 100 ÷ 0.62 ≈ 161.
Check 1 — does it add up? 80 + 620 + 6,000 + 15,000 + 35,000 + 43,300 = 100,000 tickets. Yes, 100%.
Check 2 — chance of getting less than $5.00 back? Items 5 and 6 are below the price: 35.00% + 43.30% = 78.30%. Roughly four openings in five return less than you paid.
Check 3 — chance of the headline item? 0.08%, or 1 in 1,250. If you opened this case 100 times, the chance of seeing Item 1 at least once is 1 − (1 − 0.0008)^100 ≈ 7.7%. More than nine times in ten, 100 openings would not produce it.
The same table also lets you calculate expected value — the average return per opening. That is a separate step covered in case price vs item value.
Common traps when reading odds
- Rounded tiny odds. "0.01%" might be rounded from 0.005%. When a site rounds, the smallest numbers carry the largest relative error. Ticket ranges avoid this.
- Odds by tier, not by item. A table that says "Red: 0.5%" across five red items leaves you guessing which one you get. Item-level odds are better.
- Value without wear. The same item can be worth very different amounts in different wear conditions. Check which condition the value refers to.
- Odds that change. Sites can update cases. If you saved a table last week, re-check it.
- Missing table. If there is no odds table at all, there is nothing to read — and that is a reason to stop, as our pre-deposit checklist explains.
Why ticket ranges are worth the effort
Percentages are a summary; ticket ranges are the mechanism. With a range you can confirm the arithmetic yourself, and on sites that publish each roll's number you can check exactly which item that number should have produced. If a site shows both, make sure they agree.
A 60-second routine
- Find the full table for the case.
- Add up the chances — about 100%?
- Convert the top item to "1 in X".
- Add up the chances of every item worth less than the price.
- Decide whether you are comfortable with that number before you open.
The routine does not make a case a good bet. It makes sure you know what kind of bet it is. Set a budget before you start, and see our responsible gambling page if you want tools or support.
FAQ
What does 0.25% mean in a case odds table?
It means that item drops on average once every 400 openings (100 ÷ 0.25 = 400). It does not mean you will get it by opening 400; each opening has the same 0.25% chance.
Why do some tables show ticket ranges instead of percentages?
Ticket ranges show how the random number is mapped to items. If a roll between 1 and 100,000 lands in an item's range, you get that item. The size of the range divided by the total gives the percentage.
What if the odds do not add up to 100%?
Small rounding differences (for example 99.99%) are normal. A gap of more than that means the table is incomplete or wrong, and you cannot rely on it.
Are the colours or rarity tiers the same as odds?
No. A rarity colour is a label. Two items with the same colour can have very different drop chances, so always read the number next to the item.