O2 · Odds
Variance and streaks: how long a dry run can last
Why long losing streaks are normal in case opening, with a probability table showing how likely it is to go 10, 50 or 300 openings without a rare drop.
9 Nov 20264 tables
Topic
Odds & math
Odds tables, expected value, return to player and variance, worked through with numbers you can check.
3guides
O2 · Odds
How to read a case odds table, line by line
Percentages, "1 in X", ticket ranges and rarity tiers: how to read a case odds table properly, check that it adds up, and spot the numbers that matter.
9 Nov 20263 tables
O2 · Odds
Case price vs item value: measuring what a case gives back
How to compare a case's price with the value of what's inside it, using expected value, return to player and the sell-back rate, with a fully worked fictional example.
9 Nov 20263 tables